what impact and enlightenment did the domestic gdp declined in the first quarter bring to the energy industry?-尊龙最新版

the labor day holiday is approaching. at present, except for tourism, accommodation, theater, training, and other industries that have not been fully resumed due to the impact of the covid-19 epidemic, most industries across the country have achieved full production resumption since the beginning of february. since late january, from central to local government, various policies including financial support and innovation support have been issued following the actual situation. with the support of various preferential policies, the resumption of business and production continues to accelerate.

of course, this epidemic still caused a serious impact on china's overall economic growth. according to the data released by the national bureau of statistics of china on april 17th, china's first-quarter real gdp decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, which was the first single-quarter negative growth since 1992, and it exceeded the expectations of some institutions and experts.

what impact and inspiration does this epidemic have on the development of the entire energy industry?

in mid-february, china energy news published an industry article, in response to the impact of the covid-19 epidemic on the energy industry, invited zhang yuejun, head of the resource and environmental management research center of hunan university, to do a professional analysis. the analysis predicts that the epidemic situation will cause a sharp drop in energy consumption demand in the short term, with little impact in the medium and long term.

from the perspective of energy supply, the supply of thermal coal will tighten in the short term. oil and natural gas (lng) is mainly imported, with a high degree of external dependence, and is mainly based on long-term agreement contracts. except for supply shortages due to transportation problems in some places, oil and natural gas will generally show an oversupply situation due to a sharp decline in demand in the short term. although the commissioning of new energy projects will lag, it will not affect the energy supply.

this prediction is quite accurate from the perspective of energy production in march 2020 announced by the national bureau of statistics of china. from the perspective of energy consumption demand, in the first quarter, due to the epidemic, the overall energy demand was weak, and consumption fell year-on-year. the energy consumption of industrial above the designated size, which accounted for more than 60% of the society's energy consumption, decreased by 4.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell by 7.2 percentage points from the same period last year. according to preliminary calculations, total energy consumption in the first quarter fell by 2.8% year-on-year, and energy consumption per unit of gdp rose by 4.3%.

slightly different from the forecast, natural gas imports slowed down in the first quarter. statistics show that in march, 6.92 million tons of natural gas was imported, decreased by 0.2% year-on-year. in the first quarter, imported natural gas was 24.66 million tons, increased by 1.8% year-on-year. however, natural gas production has grown rapidly, 483 billion cubic meters of natural gas was produced in the first quarter, increased by 9.1% year-on-year.

chart: monthly trend of natural gas imports

chart: monthly trend of natural gas production

from the perspective of the overall energy structure, it shows a trend of continued optimization. according to preliminary calculations, the proportion of clean energy consumption such as natural gas, hydropower, nuclear power, and wind power in total energy consumption in the first quarter increased by 0.8 percentage points over the same period of the previous year, and the proportion of coal consumption decreased by 0.5 percentage points. at the same time, energy consumption continues to maintain a clean and low-carbon trend.

from these data, it can be seen that the 6th meeting of the central financial and economic leadership group in june 2014 proposed the "four revolutions" of energy (consumption revolution, supply revolution, technological revolution, institutional revolution) and "one cooperation" (all-round strengthening of the system cooperation), and the 19th communist party of china national congress proposed to promote the revolution in energy production and consumption and build a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient energy system, etc. the related process has been progressing steadily and effectively and has achieved remarkable results.

under the requirements of the energy revolution, china's energy policy has indicated three paths for the transformation and upgrading of traditional energy sources, namely clean fossil energy, large-scale clean energy, and intelligent energy supply.

under such policy guidance, the domestic energy industry has worked hard to transition to low-carbon energy, which is bound to be a journey with a bright future and a torturous process. however, it is foreseeable that after the test of the epidemic, soon, those enterprises who take "development and promotion of clean and green energy production" as their mission and believe that "lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets" to actively take the initiative and reform to promote energy development will have more opportunities to grow. those who fool the reform will eventually be obliterated by history in a more severe situation.

although the road to reform is difficult, we will win if we work together.on the occasion of labor day, china sam group pays tribute to all energy workers who work together to promote the development of clean energy and actively build a community with a shared future for mankind.

sources of professional data for this article: economic observer, national new energy website, china energy news, the official website of national bureau of statistics of china.
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